Anthropic is officially on the road with its IPO, pitching a $1.4 trillion valuation after institutional pushback forced it down from $2 trillion. The lower price leaves room for an opening pop, but that rally could be the high-water mark.
We saw a similar playbook with SpaceX with a 30–40% initial surge followed by a steep drop below the offer price, before finally settling around $140–$160.
But with Anthropic we have serious red flags: projected never before seen profits, $600+ billion in obligations, and a governance structure designed to keep cloud partners invested while keeping voting power strictly with the founders.
Looks more like exit liquidity then a great investment opportunity.
Are you buying? or passing?
Ps NOPAT stands for Net Operating Profit After Tax and represents a company’s theoretical income from operations if it had no debt (and no interest expense). NOPAT is used to make companies more comparable by removing the impact of their capital structure so we can have more of an Apples to Apples comparison for two companies in the same industry but with different capital structures. i.e., one with no leverage and the other with significant leverage or obligations.